As if the cold this Saturday morning is not bitter enough, we will be left with multiple rounds of cold shots, one which could be felt on Thanksgiving Day. The pattern is currently in a state of load, reload, repeat. That means that if temperatures do rebound, they will only slightly and not for very long. The entire week of Thanksgiving looks to turn cold. That will be the theme this year, a far cry from last year. Ensembles are the way to go, since this is not just one model run. It is an average of many different model run scenarios, which increases forecast confidence.
What are we seeing for Thanksgiving Day as far as temperature anomalies? The GEFS tells the story –
This is for the morning of Turkey Day
We don’t want to overlook another cold shot that should arrive BEFORE Thanksgiving. We are looking at the 13th-14th or around that time frame. This cold shot will not be as pronounced, but there will still be a noticeable chill in the air. Here are the GEFS ensembles for the 14th:
This is the pattern that we are seeing. It gets COLD, then only a slight modification in temperature, then another cold shot. This pattern looks to hold through at least Thanksgiving, and maybe even into the end of the month. As far as a coastal storm for Thanksgiving that many are talking about, we are not seeing that yet. There is the possibility of something forming, and all the cold air would be favorable for now. However, we need a moisture source and also upper-level energy in the jet stream. In other words, all the ingredients would have to come together perfectly.
We will have to wait and see how the models develop, if they do at all. As of now, the GFS is only showing a storm system with mainly all rain –
So don’t buy into a guaranteed snowstorm just yet! It’s still only November. However, we will watch the developing trend!