Hurricane Season

Comparison of Euro and GEFS Ensembles

As promised, here is the comparison between the two. The GEFS ensembles, in my opinion, are going to do this forecast more justice than the Euro. This is because hurricane hunter data is being dumped into the American models, such as the GFS. The GEFS is simply the ensembles of the GFS, or more than one model run with different initial conditions.

The GEFS ensembles are certainly predicting a Florida strike, and then the question is where does Irma go after that. Many of the GEFS tracks take her into South Florida, probably Miami, and then to the east back out over open water. Then, a secondary landfall somewhere along the SC coast. Hilton Head or Charleston could be in the path.

The Euro has a much wider spread. The confidence with the Euro is not as high. The single run of the Euro as a more westward track, along the west coast of Florida. This would place the Keys in great danger as well as Tampa.

Nothing is set in stone just yet. Please be safe and for official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or your local NWS office.

GEFS

 

Euro

 

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