Confidence is growing on a potential snow event in New England. This area of the country is starting to head into the busy time of year for snow events. Typically, big snow storms start to show up in late January/early February. This event won’t be big, but we can certainly expect to see measurable snowfall that will make it difficult for the morning commute on Wednesday.
A frontal boundary will enter into the Northeast Tuesday afternoon, bringing light snowfall to PA and NY. As this boundary moves east, an area of low pressure will develop just off the New England coastline, rapidly gaining strength, and allowing for heavier snowfall to affect CT/RI/MA/NH late Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Mixing is a definite possibility for those closer to the coast, specifically in Rhode Island, Southeastern MA, the Cape and Islands. 18Z GFS and 12Z CMC call for mixing to occur in these areas, while the 00Z NAM keeps it all snow. NAM also happens to push the timing of the snow to start Wednesday morning lasting into late Wednesday evening.
Below you will see model runs for this scenario.
18Z GFS 00Z NAM
Currently, 3-6 inches of snow is being forecasted for the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This seems to be a good number based on the scenario. Below is the GFS forecasted snowfall totals. If mixing occurs, the 4 inch number seems to be reasonable. However, if the NAM is right and no mixing occurs, expect the snow totals to be bumped to at least 4-8 inches.
Mixing will be a big determining factor as to how much snow will impact CT/RI/MA. As we get closer, confidence will only rise to the exact scenario that will unfold. We will continue to monitor the situation here at East Coast Weather Authority, and will provide updates as they come in!