Well hello to everyone! Hopefully this forecast will be more of a treat rather than a trick. In the longer range GEFS ensembles, we are seeing a mix of below normal to average temperatures for this time of year. So if we know what are average temperature is for October 31st, we can glean what slightly below, normal, or slightly above would mean. From what we see, it looks like we all have a decent chance of below normal temperatures on that day.
The trick, is that we could be stormy and cooler than average to start off November. And it appears that pattern would persist for a while also. Here is the GEFS for Halloween, and also the GEFS for around the 3rd of November.