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Latest on Likely Matthew Track

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10-1-2016

Latest model guidance is starting to show some decent agreement that Matthew is likely head out to sea. Most of the hurricane models are now starting to indicate a right turn. This is due to Matthew turning north a bit ahead of schedule and now the models have to adjust.

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8pm hurricane model guidance. Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Matthew is projected by the HWRF, which is a pretty reliable model in the short-range, to go in between Jamaica and Hispaniola. Kingston, Jamaica is on the easternmost part of the island. The eye of Matthew will not pose a direct hit to Jamaica, but it will be close enough to bring a very dangerous and significant storm to both Jamaica and western Hispaniola

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HWRF tracks Matthew in between the two big islands. Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Some good news here for the eastern US anyway, is that the GEFS ensembles have been fairly consistent in taking Matthew away from the coast. However, southern New England and Atlantic Canada are not out of the reach of Matthew in the next week or so.

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GEFS shows Matthew tracking offshore. Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

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