This holiday weekend across the Carolinas down into Louisiana will not be filled with sunshine. We have been watching a group of showers south of Cuba as they are becoming more organized and have a high probability of becoming our first named storm of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season. These showers and storms have been organizing since earlier this week and are moving into the Gulf of Mexico where it is favorable for development.
Goes 16 Long-wave IR as of 1330z:
National Hurricane Center has increased the probability of this disturbance becoming a named storm over the next 5 days to 60%.
Biggest threat as this system moves close to the US is flooding, some place could see an additional 6+ inches of rainfall. Over the last 2 weeks some areas have already picked up close to a foot of rain and that total is only going to increase through the Memorial Day weekend.
NWS Precipitation Analysis of the past 14 days:
The GFS has this system moving across the Florida and heading straight into the Carolinas. The GFS is wrong, this is because the GFS has a different parameter scheme for convection which skews the track of a tropical cyclone into a different direction. Eventually the GFS will catch up the the Euro which is the model that I am believing in this situation.
The Euro has this system moving into the Florida panhandle and dumping even more rain as it will slowly make landfall and filter a lot of tropical moisture into the region adding to already soaked grounds.
ECMWF 500mb Height and MSLP Loop;
Where the heaviest rain will happen is still unsure at the moment, but make sure you stay with us here at East Coast Weather Authority as we get you prepared for what mother nature has to bring.