We have been in a consistently mild pattern for about a month now and people are wondering if winter will ever show up. Winter will show up, and we will be seeing pattern switch as we head into mid/late January.
Models were showing a mid January blow torch, but have now switched to a colder solution as our good old friend MJO heads into phase 8.
Currently, MJO is in phase 8 and that means we should be expecting colder weather for the Eastern US in 10-15 days. Something crucial to take away from this model solution is that turn from phase 8 back to phase 7. This is crucial to see long lasting cold in the Eastern US, because the longer the MJO stays in the colder phases, the longer lasting the cold will be.
Models are coming onto this idea as well.
This is the pattern we have been expecting to take over this winter. It has been long awaited but it is finally on the way.