Pattern To Turn Mild, Then Mid-December Pattern Becomes “Favorable”

MILD TO END NOVEMBER, START TO DECEMBER UPS AND DOWNS THEN FAVORABLE FOR A STORM

We will be in a slightly moderating airmass very soon, as it has been chilly but we’re not expecting any Arctic outbreaks anytime soon. This Sunday-Monday, we will see yet another cold shot, however it’s effects look to plummet temperatures only down to around the freezing mark. Monday morning will be quite chilly across much of the East. After the cold shot late this weekend, early next week and late week start to get warmer. There will be “backdoor” cold fronts that will cool us down, but then again that’s normal for this time of year, “seasonable.” The first half of December also looks mild, and not much to work with in the way of cold air.

We are seeing that in the GEFS ensembles for around the 28th.

However, we are expecting another shift in the pattern around mid-December. In the GEFS ensembles, there is a sign of a stormier pattern. Also temperatures are forecast to be below normal. GEFS 850mb temperatures are above average through early December, but there will be cold shots as the pattern keeps reloading and firing. Then, the stormy pattern comes into play around the 9th or 10th. We can start to think that some parts of the country will see snow. I’m thinking mainly on the northern edge of the storm only, such as into Michigan, New York, and ending across New England.

GEFS for the 9th:

GEFS 500mb height anomaly showing a trough pattern in the East, which is favorable for deeper lows that can produce snow.

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-Mike G.

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Author: Michael Griffith

I presently reside in Gastonia, NC about 30 minutes west of Charlotte. I have a bachelor's in Meteorology from Penn State University, and a Master's from Plymouth State.