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Potential Snow for NC/VA on Wednesday?

Hi everyone!

Here at East Coast Weather Authority, we always continue to monitor possibilities when it comes to big snowfall, rain, or severe events.

The next big question that comes up….. is there really another potential snow event on the horizon for North Carolina? The quick answer is —- most likely.

As meteorologists, we look for consistency in the weather models. We ask ourselves many different questions when analyzing forecast models: Are the weather models in agreement? What are the differences? Does that situation seem likely? When the models disagree, which model should we lean on? Which model has performed better this season? Which model is better for a long term forecast vs. a short term forecast?

As we analyze the GFS, Euro, and Canadian models, one thing seems to be in agreement: Yes, there is consistency showing snow in Virginia, and Eastern/Central NC. How much? Here’s the thing, we could be looking at a dusting to a few inches of snow. In previous model runs, the models tried to develop an area of low pressure right off the coast and energize the system, bringing measurable snowfall to the region. This looks less likely at the moment since the afternoon model runs came in.

                       18Z GFS                                                                        12Z CMC

                                   

Confidence continues that this will be the scenario that plays out on Wednesday.  Cold air filters into the area after this burst of snow, and could lead to slippery roadway conditions and on your driveways! Make sure to stock up on salt and those shovels!

We will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates if things change.

— Lavoie

 

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