Seasonal Outlooks

Significant Cold Likely Continues into Next Week

Many of us have heard that it will be a cold Thanksgiving, and that does have merit. From what I see, Thanksgiving Day will be quite cold. This is actually normal for this time of year. November has many ups and downs. What I am seeing here is a trend that stays cold through the end of this month, and it has my attention. We are looking at persistent, reinforcing cold shots. One that caught my eye on the European model is next Monday the 27th. 850mb temperatures (at 5,000 feet in the atmosphere) look quite chilly and below normal. There could be more lows in the 20s and 30s here across the South, and perhaps even lower up North.

Here is the Euro ensemble for Monday the 27th –

Please note that the models do not do well with handling cold outbreaks. Some of these models have been saying warm when in fact it has been cold. The GEFS for around the 1st of December is showing near normal or above normal, however we believe that is in error and that there will be another shot of cold around then. I believe that the blue over the Dakotas will be much stronger and colder than indicated below.

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The Outlook is a pattern where it gets cold, then temperatures rebound slightly, then cold again. The strength of these cold shots will become more extreme as we head into winter. They might not be that powerful just yet since it’s still fall!

Please stay tuned for more seasonal outlooks!

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