Enjoy the warm temperatures and sunshine while it lasts, since it will not persist for an extended amount of time. We will enjoy (for those of you who enjoy) warmer temperatures for about the next 10 days or so, give or take a day or two. Shown are the GEFS ensembles for on or around the 28th.
But then we are tracking some major changes heading our way. Our friend, the Euro, is hinting at the return of the cold around the 30th. The severity is not known at this time, but the recent stratospheric warming event coupled with the MJO starting to cycle back into the cold phases is causing us to think this could be another Polar outbreak as we have seen before this season.
Euro ensembles are shown for on or around the 30th. The cold all the way into Mexico has us raising our eyebrows.
With the return of the cold comes the return of a stormy pattern and the risk for another winter storm, or even multiple winter storms. Big snows have occurred in the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast during February. Winter is far from over.
Also, keep in mind that the major forecast models like to develop a southeast ridge, which is not always how things play out in reality.
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