Medium Range

Will it Snow on Christmas?

Last week we had a powerful snowstorm march through the Southeast US, dumping heavy snow and significant ice to parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. We are fast approaching the Christmas holiday and a stormy pattern looks to increase the probability of seeing an East Coast storm affect the Eastern US.

We have compared to what we are likely to see this winter to the winter of 2002-03 and that same idea continues. In December 2002, a powerful snowstorm marched up the East Coast during the Christmas holiday, bringing a White Christmas to many along the East Coast.

With this winter starting out just like 2002-03, the chances of a snowstorm affecting the East Coast US have increased. Models are beginning to show the possibility as well.

Above are the GEFS and EPS mean Geopotential Height anomalies for the time right before Christmas. Three key ides are why snow potential around Christmas is possible. One, there will be a trough in the Eastern US which will induce a stormy period. Secondly, the ridge off New Foundland which will direct a storm track parallel with the East Coast. Finally, the ridge in the west will allow energy to dive down from Western Canada and could be the potential cold air to bring big snows to places  along the East Coast.

This pattern continues to panout more like 2002 as time goes on and we expect this to continue throughout the winter. We will continue to keep you updated with what is to come as we get closer so continue to follow along with us.

-Alex B.

 

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